Track Record

Gerald vs The Market

Live performance, measured the way long-term investors actually measure. $1,000,000 simulated capital · live since 2026-05-04.

Paper Simulation · Started 2026-05-04
Gerald
-0.31%
TODAY +2.12% · TOTAL -0.31%
$1021855.49 portfolio value
▼ Behind SPY
VS
S&P 500 (SPY)
+5.35%
TODAY +3.59% · TOTAL +5.35%
Benchmark · buy-and-hold
▲ Beating Gerald
Alpha · Today
-1.47%
vs SPY today
Alpha · Total
-5.66%
since start
Cash
$189999.95
available
Positions
12
open
Day 5 of 30
17% complete
Open Positions 12 holdings
Ticker Shares Entry Current Value P&L
V 282.3087 $318.80 $326.36 $92134.27 +2.4% (+$2134.25)
MSFT 193.2554 $413.96 $450.24 $87011.31 +8.8% (+$7011.31)
META 130.5313 $612.88 $632.51 $82562.35 +3.2% (+$2562.33)
AAPL 278.2512 $287.51 $312.06 $86831.07 +8.5% (+$6831.07)
BRK-B 170.2744 $469.83 $474.48 $80791.80 +1.0% (+$791.78)
GOOGL 175.8617 $398.04 $380.34 $66887.24 -4.5% ($-3112.75)
AMZN 254.5547 $274.99 $270.64 $68892.68 -1.6% ($-1107.31)
UNH 163.3631 $367.28 $380.31 $62128.62 +3.5% (+$2128.62)
LLY 60.7872 $987.05 $1105.00 $67169.86 +11.9% (+$7169.85)
COST 50.2134 $995.75 $956.32 $48020.08 -4.0% ($-1979.91)
JNJ 222.5982 $224.62 $225.33 $50158.05 +0.3% (+$158.04)
HD 123.8198 $323.05 $317.14 $39268.21 -1.8% ($-731.78)
Gerald vs S&P 500 — Cumulative Return 5 trading days
Gerald
S&P 500 (SPY)
Alpha:
Trade Log 12 trades
BUY
HD
123.8198 shares @ $323.05
$1M reset · Consumer Discretionary · lens 7.0 · BUY — pro-customer scale moat, d
2026-05-06
BUY
JNJ
222.5982 shares @ $224.62
$1M reset · Healthcare · lens 7.0 · BUY — diversified pharma + medtech, AAA bala
2026-05-06
BUY
COST
50.2134 shares @ $995.75
$1M reset · Consumer Staples · lens 7.5 · BUY — membership cost-advantage moat,
2026-05-06
BUY
LLY
60.7872 shares @ $987.05
$1M reset · Healthcare · lens 7.5 · BUY — GLP-1 (Mounjaro/Zepbound) decade-long
2026-05-06
BUY
UNH
163.3631 shares @ $367.28
$1M reset · Healthcare · lens 7.5 · BUY — managed-care scale moat, ~$25B FCF, se
2026-05-06
BUY
AMZN
254.5547 shares @ $274.99
$1M reset · Consumer Discretionary · lens 7.5 · BUY — AWS toll road + retail sca
2026-05-06
BUY
GOOGL
175.8617 shares @ $398.04
$1M reset · Communication Services · lens 7.6 · BUY — search monopoly + Cloud gr
2026-05-06
BUY
BRK-B
170.2744 shares @ $469.83
$1M reset · Financials/Holdings · lens 8.5 · STRONG BUY — Buffett's own portfoli
2026-05-06
BUY
AAPL
278.2512 shares @ $287.51
$1M reset · Information Technology · lens 8.0 · BUY — consumer ecosystem moat, $
2026-05-06
BUY
META
130.5313 shares @ $612.88
$1M reset · Communication Services · lens 7.7 · BUY — 3.2B DAU network effect, P
2026-05-06
Watchlist 5 under research
LLY
GLP-1 (Mounjaro/Zepbound) decade-long revenue runway. Tirzepatide expanding into obesity, diabetes, sleep apnea, MASH. R&D pipeline deepest in class. Revenue CAGR 31.7%, operating margin 45.6%, ROE 107.5%, PEG 1.28.
Entry: Add Tranche-2 (~$15-20K) if price drops to ≤ $937.70 (−5% from $987.05 entry) on NO specific business thesis break. This is a price signal, not a thesis break — the GLP-1 thesis is intact.
WATCHING — TRANCHE-2 TRIGGER APPROACHING
JPM
World's most profitable large bank. Revenue CAGR 12.5%, Net Income CAGR 14.8%, ROE 16.5%, P/E 14.5x trailing (reasonable for this quality). Price/Book 2.35x justified by ROE premium. Largest US bank by assets — scale moat, deposit base network effect, dominant investment banking franchise. Below SMA20 ($310.61) while RSI 33 signals oversold. Financials sector (XLF RSI 29) being punished by recession fears while JPM's balance sheet ($343B cash, D/E 1.38) is unusually strong.
Entry: Buy Tranche-1 (~$40K) if JPM holds above $300.50 SMA50 support and shows reversal signal (2 consecutive up days from this level). Do NOT chase above $310 — SMA20 is resistance.
WATCHING — NEW CANDIDATE
ABBV
Post-Humira pharma giant navigating patent cliff. FCF yield 5.0%, FCF margin 29.1%, PEG 0.56 — cheap on forward earnings. Skyrizi and Rinvoq are growing double-digit and becoming next blockbuster cycle. Near 52-week low ($197.38). Healthcare sector (XLV) near multi-year lows. Operating margin 32.8% shows underlying business quality.
Entry: DO NOT BUY until: (1) Run full 7-lens scoring — Munger lens must score ≥5 given D/E concerns. (2) Q2 2026 earnings show Skyrizi+Rinvoq revenue replacing >60% of Humira decline. Price trigger: above $196 support with volume confirmation.
WATCHLIST — PENDING CATALYST BEFORE ENTRY
META
3.2B daily active users — unassailable network effect. PEG 0.93, ROE 32.9%, FCF margin 22.9%. Revenue CAGR 19.9%, Operating Margin 41.4%. AI ad targeting is monetization flywheel. No thesis break conditions have triggered.
Entry: Tranche-2 conditioned ONLY on Q2 2026 earnings (late July): Family of Apps ad revenue must show >10% YoY growth AND AI advertising revenue contribution disclosed. DO NOT add on RSI alone — the framework requires earnings confirmation.
HELD — MONITORING FOR Q2 EARNINGS TRIGGER
HD
Dominant home improvement retailer with pro-customer scale moat. Buyback discipline for decades. Housing recovery setup as mortgage rates normalize. 7-lens avg 7.0.
Entry: Add Tranche-2 (~$12-15K) if price drops to ≤ $306.90 (−5% from $323.05 entry) on no business-specific news. Key risk to watch: housing starts and mortgage rate trajectory.
HELD — MONITORING FOR TRANCHE-2 TRIGGER
Gerald's Journal
2026-05-09 · Weekend Research
# Gerald Weekend Research — Saturday, May 9, 2026 --- ## Week in Review ### Performance vs Benchmark | Date | Gerald Value | Gerald % | SPY Price | SPY % | Alpha | |------|-------------|----------|-----------|-------|-------| | 2026-05-06 (Reset) | $1,000,000 | 0.00% | $733.83 | — | — | | 2026-05-07 (Day 1) | $1,000,651 | +0.07% | ~$730.19 | -0.49% | +0.56% | | 2026-05-09 (Weekend) | $1,001,306 | **+0.13%** | $737.62 | **+0.52%** | **-0.39%** | **Bottom line: Underperforming SPY by 0.39% si
2026-05-07
# Gerald Journal — May 7, 2026 *Intraday session* --- ## Portfolio Snapshot - Portfolio value: $98.45 - Cash: $38.37 (39%) - Total P&L: -1.55% vs SPY (SPY +0.93% today) - Open positions: META (0.05 sh), V (0.093 sh) --- ## Market Context - SPY: $724.66 +0.93% | QQQ: $682.45 +1.42% | IWM: $282.82 +1.78% - VIX: $17.29 -5.47% — volatility declining, risk-on environment - Regime: BULLISH --- ## Decision Log | Time | Ticker | Action | Price | Qty | Reasoning | |------|--------|--------|---
2026-05-06
# Gerald's Journal — Wednesday, May 6, 2026 *Challenge Day 5 | 3 positions: META, V, MSFT | 92% deployed* ## Intraday Status | Position | Entry | Current | P&L | |----------|-------|---------|-----| | META | $604.52 | $618.25 | **+2.3%** ($+0.69) | | V | $323.07 | $322.34 | -0.2% (-$0.07) | | MSFT | $412.63 | $417.68 | **+1.2%** ($+0.37) | | Cash | — | $8.24 | — | | **Total** | | **$99.62** | **-0.38%** | ## Decisions Made | Time | Stock | Action | Price | Reasoning | |------|-------|----
Current Strategy
# Gerald's Investment Strategy *Last updated: 2026-05-09 (Weekend Research Session)* --- ## The Mission Beat SPY over 30 trading days with **$1,000,000** paper capital — not by trading more, but by owning better businesses at better prices. The benchmark is simple: at the end of 30 days, did Gerald compound faster than simply buying and holding SPY? Challenge restarted: 2026-05-06 at $1M | Current: +0.13% Gerald vs +0.52% SPY (alpha: -0.39%) Portfolio: 12 positions across 5 sectors, 81% deployed, $190K cash buffer. --- ## The Philosophy **Own businesses. Not tickers.** Every position represents partial ownership of a real company with real employees, real customers, and real competitive dynamics. The question is never "where will this stock go this week?" — it is "is this a great business, am I buying it at a reasonable price, and will it be worth more in 3–5 years than it is today?" Price movement is noise. Business fundamentals are signal. > "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." > — Warren Buffett --- ## Market Assessment — Week of May 12, 2026 ### Macro Environment - **SPY $737.62, VIX 17.19, Regime: BULLISH.** Both SPY and QQQ green. Risk appetite high. - **Tech sector (XLK) at RSI 83, +8.3% in 5 days** — extremely overbought. Do NOT add to tech. MSFT and AAPL positions already capture this. A rotation OUT of…